Market cycle analysis screamed ‘take profit’ ahead of May 19 sell-off


Welcome to Cointelegraph Market’s weekly e-newsletter. This week we’ll determine emerging-sector developments throughout the cryptocurrency panorama so as to broaden your understanding of market cycles and higher equip readers to make the most of the microcycles which might be an everyday prevalence within the bigger market construction.

The cryptocurrency sector has a longtime popularity for being unstable and fast-moving, and these traits had been on full show in Could because the fast decline within the value of Bitcoin (BTC) from $60,000 to $33,000 led to a mass exodus that wiped off $1.2 trillion in worth from the overall market capitalization.

Whereas many throughout the ecosystem have positioned the blame for the downturn on issues like unfavourable tweets from influencers and highly effective figures like Elon Musk or yet one more announcement that the federal government of China has banned Bitcoin, extra skilled merchants and analysts had been warning concerning the potential for a big pullback for a number of weeks previous to the sell-off.

The fast rise in costs in 2021 confirmed a number of the basic indicators of bubble-like conduct, with overbought alarm bells ringing whereas Uber drivers and grocery clerks had been happy as punch to supply their opinion on what the subsequent large mover can be.

With that mentioned, now looks as if a superb time to assessment the varied levels of a market cycle to assist get a greater understanding of what the market has gone by means of up to now and what can probably be anticipated within the months and years forward.

4 phases of a market cycle

The 4 primary phases of a market cycle, which all merchants ought to have a primary understanding of, are the buildup section, the mark-up section, the distribution section and the mark-down section.

Phases of a market cycle. Supply: Investopedia

The buildup section takes place after a market has bottomed out and is characterised by the innovators and early adopters shopping for up the asset for its long-term potential earlier than any vital value strikes.

This section was seen within the cryptocurrency market starting round December 2018 when the worth of BTC bottomed beneath $3,500 and prolonged all the best way till October 2020 when its value started to meaningfully rise above $12,000.

BTC/USD 1-day chart. Supply: Bitstamp

The mark-up section actually started to warmth up in December 2020 and prolonged into January 2021 as BTC and the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector had been attracting world consideration, with the overall market capitalization climbing to a excessive above $2.5 trillion in Could because the distribution section started to provoke.

Complete cryptocurrency market capitalization. Supply: CoinMarketCap

Throughout distribution phases, sellers start to dominate and the beforehand bullish sentiment turns combined, resulting in costs getting locked in a buying and selling vary. The section ends when the market reverses route.

A number of the typical chart patterns seen throughout this time, as outlined by Investopedia, are double and triple tops alongside well-known head-and-shoulders patterns, which had been the warning indicators offered by BTC and seen by technical analysts forward of this most up-to-date sell-off.

Just like the 2017–2018 bull market, the worth of BTC reached a brand new all-time excessive (ATH) after which started to development down, which resulted in funds rotating out of Bitcoin and into the altcoin market, additional propelling the overall market capitalization to a report excessive of $2.53 trillion on Could 12.

For the astute crypto dealer, this sample was an indication {that a} mark-down section was approaching and that it will be smart to take income as BTC fluctuated between $40,000 and $60,000 and altcoins spiked to all-time highs in preparation to experience out the sell-off and scoop up tokens at a reduction through the subsequent backside.

Deploying funds within the accumulation section

Now that the market has skilled a big pullback and continues to seek for a value flooring, it’s an important time to observe value actions, with a watch on on the lookout for good entry factors into viable tasks.

Maybe essentially the most well-known graphic detailing the everyday market cycle is Wall St. Cheat Sheet’s “Psychology of a Market Cycle.” The sample has appeared in markets of every type, from shares and commodities to cryptocurrencies and actual property.

Phases of a market cycle. Supply: Wall St. Cheat Sheet

Trying on the chart for Bitcoin, we are able to see an identical value sample that started late in 2020 with a doable “disbelief” section beginning in November. The early run-up in January is comparable in look to the “hope” section on the chart above and was adopted by a multimonth run-up to a euphoric all-time excessive in April.

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Supply: TradingView

The value then dipped down from $64,000 to $47,000 earlier than bouncing again to the $53,000–$60,000 vary as complacency started to set in. The sell-off in Could propelled the market by means of the anxiousness, denial, panic and capitulation phases, and the ecosystem’s response to Musk’s tweets, along with different forces placing downward strain in the marketplace, elicited a big quantity of anger throughout the neighborhood.

Now comes the problem of coping with the despair of a considerably decrease portfolio worth and making an attempt to resolve if the market has bottomed, signaling that it’s a good time to redeploy funds, or if one of the best factor one can do is sit on their arms and look ahead to additional developments.

Main value rallies throughout this time are sometimes considered with disbelief as a sucker’s rally — thus, the cycle is full, and we’re again in the beginning.

So, does that imply that now is an efficient time to build up your favourite tasks’ tokens?

Sadly, there is no such thing as a assured appropriate reply to that query, and it’s one thing for every investor to find out on their very own. With beforehand in-demand tokens now at vital reductions in contrast with only one month in the past, this might be a superb time to start dollar-cost averaging again into the highest long-term selections in preparation for the subsequent cycle increased.

Cryptocurrency sector cycles

The everyday cycle offered right here will be utilized to the market as a complete in addition to to particular person tokens or token sectors.

A great instance of that is the rise of decentralized finance over the previous 12 months, which took the cryptocurrency market by storm, led by the emergence of well-liked decentralized exchanges like Uniswap and lending platforms like Aave.

Complete market capitalization of the DeFi sector. Supply: CoinGecko

As seen within the chart above, the DeFi sector as a complete went by means of its personal market cycle sample that coincided with its rising reputation and use throughout the ecosystem.

An identical sample was seen within the rise of nonfungible tokens (NFTs) in 2021, however the timing was completely different, highlighting the concept that sectors transfer collectively and hinting on the doable advantages of a sector-based strategy to investing in cryptocurrencies.

ENJ/USDT vs. CHZ/USDT vs. AXS/USDT vs. MANA/USDT. Supply: TradingView

With a view to make the most of these alternatives, merchants are at occasions compelled to undertake a contrarian strategy. The buildup section is usually marked by decreased sentiment, however one of the best time to promote is through the distribution section when sentiment is at its highest and a majority of merchants are going all-in with hopes of nice riches.

As for the present market outlook, it’s doable that one of the best plan of action is adopting a wait-and-see strategy whereas holding some dry powder on the sidelines to make the most of any “flash gross sales” which will come our manner. No matter it’s possible you’ll select, simply bear in mind to do your individual analysis and have a threat administration course of in place, because the traditionally unstable nature of the cryptocurrency market reveals no indicators of abating any time quickly.

Need extra details about market cycles?

The views and opinions expressed listed below are solely these of the writer and don’t essentially mirror the views of Cointelegraph.com. Each funding and buying and selling transfer includes threat, you must conduct your individual analysis when making a call.